Donald Trump Admits US Has Lost India, Russia to 'Darkest' China after Modi, Putin, Xi SCO Bonhomie US President Donald Trump on Friday made a cryptic post expressing thinning hopes of a trade deal with India. Posting a picture of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, it seemed, that the US had "lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China".
Trump's statement, "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!" captured a moment of apparent unity among the three Eurasian giants [, ]. This has led to critical questions: Was this a watershed moment signaling a new anti-U.S. axis, or a dramatic simplification of the intricate dance of geopolitics? A deeper look reveals a complex web of strategic calculations, economic pressures, and historical ties that define the relationships between these four global powers.
The SCO Summit: A Calculated Display of Unity
The 25th SCO Summit, which concluded on September 1, 2025, was meticulously choreographed to send a message to the world, particularly to Washington [, ]. Images from Tianjin showed Modi, Putin, and Xi exchanging warm handshakes, smiles, and laughter, at one point forming a tight huddle [, ]. The camaraderie was a deliberate projection of an alternative to U.S.-led global leadership [, ].
This display was underscored by Xi Jinping's call for a "new multipolar world order" and "true multilateralism," a thinly veiled critique of American dominance [, ]. For Prime Minister Modi, the summit marked his first visit to China in seven years, offering a platform to signal a potential reset in Sino-Indian relations at a time of friction with the U.S. [, ]. The optics were potent, with analysts noting that the White House should recognize its policies are pushing other nations to seek alternatives.
The Catalyst: Trump's Tariffs and Strained Ties
The immediate backdrop to Trump's lament and India's warm reception in Tianjin is a period of intense strain in U.S.-India relations, largely driven by Trump's aggressive trade policies [, ]. In the weeks leading up to the summit, the Trump administration imposed a staggering 50% tariff on a wide range of Indian goods [, ]. This included an existing 25% levy compounded by a new 25% penalty specifically punishing India for its continued purchase of Russian oil [, ].
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The economic impact of these tariffs has been severe:
Trade in Jeopardy The duties affect billions of dollars in trade, with exporters estimating that nearly 55% of India's $87 billion in merchandise exports to the U.S. could be impacted [, ]. The U.S. had been India's largest trading partner.
Job Losses Key Indian industries, including textiles, gems, jewelry, and footwear, face a significant downturn, threatening thousands of jobs and hindering Prime Minister Modi's "Make in India" initiative [, ].
Diplomatic Fallout Trump's characterization of the U.S.-India relationship as "totally one-sided" and the punitive tariffs have been described by New Delhi as "unjustified and unreasonable" [fetch_url_response]. Senior U.S. lawmakers like Rep. Gregory Meeks warned that these "arbitrary tariffs" threaten a "vital relationship" that has been cultivated over decades.
This economic pressure from Washington created a fertile ground for India to publicly reaffirm its relationships with other major powers.
India's Stance: Strategic Autonomy, Not Alliance
While Trump's comment suggests India has been "lost," analysts argue that India's actions are a classic expression of its long-standing foreign policy of strategic autonomy [, ]. Rather than aligning with one bloc, India has consistently pursued "multi-alignment," engaging with all major powers to protect and advance its own national interests. The SCO summit provided a perfect stage for New Delhi to demonstrate this independence in the face of U.S. pressure [, ].
The India-Russia Connection The bond between India and Russia is "time-tested" and historically robust. The U.S. tariffs did not create this relationship, but they provided a strategic incentive for India to showcase its strength and defy American demands, particularly regarding the purchase of Russian crude [, ]. During the summit, Modi and Putin held a nearly hour-long private conversation, with Modi later stating, "India and Russia always stood shoulder to shoulder in the most challenging times".
A Cautious Thaw with China The relationship with Beijing is far more complicated, shadowed by the 2020 border clashes and ongoing strategic mistrust [, ]. However, the summit did signal a "diplomatic reset". Modi and Xi agreed to resume direct passenger flights, reopen border trade, and explore economic cooperation, particularly as both nations face U.S. tariffs. This rapprochement is less about a new alliance and more a pragmatic recalibration driven by shared external pressures.
The Flawed "Trilateral Axis"
The idea of a cohesive "Russia-India-China" (RIC) bloc, as implied by Trump, is largely misleading. While the three nations find common ground in their opposition to a U.S.-dominated world order, their individual interests and deep-seated rivalries prevent the formation of a true alliance.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China for its economic survival in the face of Western sanctions, a dynamic some analysts describe as trading "pride for survival".
China is using platforms like the SCO to build parallel global systems in finance, technology, and governance to expand its influence [, ]. However, its ambitions often clash with India's.
India remains deeply wary of China's regional dominance. New Delhi has pointedly refused to endorse China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and continues to voice concerns about projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that violate its sovereignty [, ]. India's vision is for a "multipolar Asia," a concept aimed at balancing China's power, not just a multipolar world.
The unity on display is therefore better understood as "managed transactionalism"—a series of opportunistic deals in areas like energy and trade—rather than a cohesive strategic pact.
Conclusion: A Geopolitical Chess Match
Donald Trump's declaration that the U.S. has "lost" India and Russia captures the powerful optics of a single moment but misses the underlying complexity of global relations. U.S. policies, particularly the harsh tariffs on India, have undeniably created a strategic opening for China and Russia, pushing New Delhi to visibly demonstrate it has other options [, ].
However, India has not been "lost." It is navigating a precarious path, balancing its deepening partnerships with the West (such as through the Quad) against its engagement with Eurasian powers in forums like the SCO. The friendly handshakes in Tianjin are less a sign of a new, unbreakable alliance and more a clear signal to Washington: strategic partnerships are a two-way street, and aggressive unilateralism can have the unintended consequence of pushing key partners to hedge their bets. The game of global influence is far from over, and India is playing for its own team.
